Median rates, leverage, and lender activity drawn from real term sheets submitted on the Gumption platform.
Report Period
July - September 2026
Data History
January 2026 - September 2026
Active Pipeline
$1B / 127 Deals
Lender Network
900+ Lenders
Section 01
What every active CRE operator should know heading into Q4 2026, sourced exclusively from deal and term sheet data processed through the Gumption platform.
A steepening yield curve pushed the 5-year Treasury above SOFR by late September, and lender quotes followed. On deals that received both fixed and floating term sheets this quarter, floating came in cheaper on of these projects, by a median of . Construction and bridge rates are now often lower compared to Treasury-based permanent debt.
Lenders are doing their best to win business despite an unfriendly rate environment. We’ve seen spreads on fixed-rate loans across all property types tighten from Q2 to Q3: from 248 to over the 5-year Treasury. Lenders are getting creative beyond rate: we also saw the median interest-only period grow from 12 to .
In Q2 2026, private credit accounted for 13% of term sheets submitted on the Gumption platform. We’ve seen that number double this quarter: of term sheets we sourced were from private lenders in Q3 2026. The premium over conventional pricing has held steady since Q2 at roughly . With new construction, the shift was sharper: private lenders issued of all term sheets, up from a quarter.
On deals with multiple conventional quotes, the best and worst rates differed by a median , up from 50 bps in Q2, and the maximum leverage offered differed by . On 61% of deals, the quote with the best rate was also the most generous on leverage. It’s growing more and more necessary to compare quotes from multiple lenders to secure the best financing.
Section 02
The past 6 months have been tumultuous for capital markets. Even as of writing (9/30), we are still experiencing a rapid steepening of the yield curve. The price of long-term debt has risen sharply in the past few weeks, with both the 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields up more than 75bps since the beginning of the quarter, hitting highs that haven’t been seen in nearly two decades. The sentiment at the beginning of the year was optimistic that we would see rates continue to decrease. Now the prevailing mood is fear that rate increases may be the new normal. As much of the market movement has been prompted by war in Iran, some speculate that this war will end after the midterm elections and remove the upward pressure.
5-Year Treasury
January - September 2026
10-Year Treasury
January - September 2026
SOFR
January - September 2026
Benchmarks Compared
5-Year Treasury, 10-Year Treasury, and SOFR · January - September 2026
On our platform, we’ve seen that lenders are absorbing a meaningful share of this year’s rate increases. The 5-year Treasury averaged 4.49% in Q3, 72 bps higher than in Q1. Over that same stretch, the median conventional rate rose only 36 bps, from 6.39% to 6.75%. That difference is coming out of lender spreads: on loans priced off the 5-year Treasury, the median spread has tightened every quarter this year, from 254 bps in Q1 to 248 bps in Q2 and 230 bps in Q3.
The shift has been gradual rather than sudden. Spreads on fixed-rate quotes have declined over the course of the year, from about 273 bps in January to around 250 bps this spring, and they hit 210 bps in September, even as the 5-year climbed more than 80 bps from the start of July. Rather than pass the full rate increase on to borrowers, seemingly lenders are accepting thinner margins to win deals. They are also getting creative beyond rate: the median interest-only period stretched from 12 months in Q2 to 18 months in Q3.
Floating rate debt is a different story. Spreads over SOFR widened from 278 bps in Q1 to about 300 bps in Q2 and have held steady since. With SOFR staying between roughly 3.5% and 3.9% all year, lenders have had little need to tighten floating spreads to stay competitive. The growing gap between floating and fixed pricing is coming from the benchmarks themselves.
Median Interest Rate · Conventional Lenders
6.75%Q3 2026 Median
Median Fixed-Rate Spread by Month · Conventional
Spread over Treasury · January - September 2026
Median Spread by Benchmark · Conventional
Q1 - Q3 2026
As the yield curve steepens, it has the effect of making floating rate CRE debt significantly cheaper than fixed rate debt. A live deal on our platform has received 6 quotes, both fixed and floating. The best fixed rate quote was at 6.60% and the best floating rate came in at 5.57%: over a full point of delta for the same project. While this is a more dramatic example, across all our deals that received quotes of both types this quarter, the median delta between fixed and floating rates was ~30 bps.
Below you can see a chart tracking the median floating rate vs. the median fixed rate on the Gumption platform.
Median Floating vs. Fixed Rate · Conventional
April - September 2026
Of course, it wouldn’t be wise to chase after a floating rate simply because it is cheaper. Many operators were burned by the rate hikes of 2022-2023. After 9 months of a steady target federal funds rate, the Fed elected to hike rates 25 bps at the September FOMC meeting, with rumors of an additional rate hike coming in October. Current target rate probabilities indicate that rates being raised at least 25 bps, if not 50 bps by year end, is a likely scenario.
Section 03
One of the nuances of CRE financing is the opaque nature of lending. A sponsor may only use one or two lenders and remain unaware that there are better options available. We noted that the gap between the more aggressive and more conservative lenders widened sharply this quarter. On deals with multiple conventional quotes, the best and worst rates differed by a median 75 bps, up from 50 bps in Q2, and the maximum leverage offered differed by 10 full percentage points. On a $4M loan, that's roughly $30,000 a year in interest, or more than half a million dollars in equity. On 61% of deals, the cheapest quote was also the most generous on leverage. Driving a competitive process is only growing more crucial, especially in harsh rate environments.
Best vs. Worst Conventional Quote · Q1 - Q3 2026
Median gap on deals with multiple conventional quotes.
Rate spread
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Q3 2026
Gap between the lowest and highest rate quoted (bps)
Leverage spread
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Q3 2026
Gap between the most and least leverage offered (LTV/LTC)
Section 04
A breakdown of term sheets submitted through the Gumption platform by lender category, including banks, CMBS conduits, credit unions, life companies, and private debt funds.
Median Rate by Lender Group
Q1 - Q3 2026
Median Rate by Lender Category · Q3 2026
Most Active Category
Community and regional banks continue to submit the highest volume of term sheets across all property types on the platform.
Lowest Median Rate
Life insurance companies offer some of the thinnest spreads in the market, but are very conservative regarding the assets and deal profiles they will finance.
Specialized but Powerful
While CMBS loans typically have higher all-in interest rates, they typically offer interest-only for the entire life of the loan, reducing debt service and allowing higher levels of leverage.
Section 05
Real transactions closed through the Gumption platform in Q3 2026, showing how the data translates into outcomes for active sponsors.
A well-established California-based senior living developer had recently completed a new assisted-living and memory care facility and needed a bridge-to-HUD facility as its construction note approached maturity. After months of searching, the sponsors had received only one offer. Gumption placed the request with a large regional bank in just 3 days, with an option to convert to HUD financing once DSCR thresholds are met.
Loan Amount
$24.5M
Rate
5.69% fixed
Loan Term
36 months I/O
LTV
75%
Lender Fee
1.00%
HUD Option
5YT + 2.00%
An Alabama-based real estate investment firm sought to refinance a recently leased-up industrial property in the Goldsboro, North Carolina market. The sponsor's incumbent lender was interested, but would only offer a significantly lower loan amount and a shorter term. The winning lender, a regional bank with a presence across the Southeast, got comfortable with the out-of-state sponsors and moved into underwriting rapidly.
Loan Amount
$2M
Rate
6.25% fixed
Loan Term
5 years
Amortization
25 years
LTV
75%
Lender Fee
0.50%
An experienced Alabama homebuilder sought construction financing for a development of four semi-custom spec homes in Birmingham. The sponsor had relied on the same few local banks for decades and wanted to test the market. Banks and debt funds both submitted competitive options, and a regional bank won with a lower rate and higher leverage than the incumbents.
Loan Amount
$1.1M
Rate
7.00% fixed
Loan Term
12 months
Interest-Only
12 months
LTC
85%
Lender Fee
1.00%
Section 06
As of writing, more of our pipeline by volume is new construction than any other loan type. (34%, inching out even refinance requests by a couple points.) Construction loans are perhaps the most nuanced of the major loan types. Many lenders, both conventional and private, categorically balk at lending on ground-up development. There is increased risk, increased complexity, additional concerns over timeline and entitlement. For lenders that do provide construction financing, it has historically come at a higher cost than permanent financing, though that gap has narrowed this year.
So why bother? Well, for developers, these projects can be vastly more profitable than mere value-add plays. Experienced sponsors with an understanding of their target markets can generate outsized returns with ground-up developments.
As these loans are inherently projections-based, sharpening the pencil on the pro-forma is key. Overly optimistic construction budgets and NOI calculations are more heavily scrutinized in light of skyrocketing costs and stalled rent growth. For-sale projects are underwritten under the lens of their markets as some metros become overbuilt.
When it comes to financing, the increased nuance of construction lending can make it difficult for borrowers to find the most amenable terms. It’s relatively easy to find permanent financing for stabilized, newer-vintage multifamily properties, and there are few competitive advantages lenders can offer other than rate and proceeds. The spread between differing term sheets tends to lean skinnier. Ground-up construction projects, on the other hand, even with major asset types in hot markets, can receive vastly differing terms from similar lenders. Furthermore, some lenders specialize in construction and can provide superior service to borrowers post-closing.
This quarter, the construction market split in two. Conventional pricing held flat, with a median rate of 6.63% in Q3 compared to 6.64% in Q2, but banks and credit unions pulled back on leverage: the highest LTC we saw from a conventional lender fell from 85% to 75%. Private lenders stepped into that gap. They issued half of all construction term sheets we received this quarter, up from roughly a quarter in Q2, at a median LTC of 82.5% compared to 70% from conventional lenders. That leverage comes at a price: the median private construction rate rose from 9.50% to 9.88%, widening the premium over conventional pricing from roughly 285 to 325 bps.
Private Share of Construction Term Sheets
Q1 - Q3 2026
Median LTC · Construction
Conventional vs. private · Q2 vs. Q3 2026
That said, sponsors shouldn’t rush to pay a premium for private credit. Plenty of conventional lenders remain active in construction, and the right one can get closer to private-lender leverage than most borrowers expect. Our Atlanta self-storage deal is a good example: a regional bank provided 80% LTC at SOFR + 250 bps, leverage in line with private lenders at a rate more than 300 bps lower.
Deal Spotlight
A Georgia-based real estate investment firm and repeat Gumption client sought vertical construction financing for a climate-controlled self-storage facility in the Atlanta MSA. The site was acquired in cash in late 2024 and fully entitled, so significant equity was already in the capital stack. The sponsor's priorities were rate and a long interest-only period to keep debt service manageable through lease-up. The winning lender was a regional bank newer to the market, without a local branch, that most sponsors wouldn't have thought to call.
Loan Amount
$10.4M
Rate
SOFR + 2.50%
Loan Term
5 years
Interest-Only
42 months
LTC
80%
Lender Fee
0.30%
Section 07 · Methodology
All data in this report is sourced from the Gumption platform. Rate and spread figures reflect actual term sheets and indicative quotes submitted by lenders in the Gumption network, not published rate sheets. Data is anonymized and aggregated; no individual borrower or lender is identifiable from any figure in this report.
The Gumption CRE Lending Report is published quarterly. Figures are subject to revision as additional data is received. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. Copyright 2026 Gumption. Not for redistribution without written permission.