Gumption Blog

August 2026 Capital Markets Update

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Published

August 14, 2026

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4 min read

We hope you've been having a great summer. Now that kids are back in school (at least here in the South) and vacation season seems to be wrapping up, here's everything you should know regarding CRE capital markets:

Capital markets updates

Treasury yields continue to rise and the 5-year Treasury currently hovers around 4.40%. While rumors of a potential rate increase at the next Fed meeting have been dampened by last week's subpar jobs report, interest rate traders are currently forecasting that a rate cut is no longer on the table for this year and that instead a rate hike of at least 25bps is likely.

CME FedWatch target rate probabilities for the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting: 3.50–3.75% at 33.6%, 3.75–4.00% at 44.9% (most likely), 4.00–4.25% at 19.0%, and 4.25–4.50% at 2.5%

While the underlying indices have been floating higher, bank and even debt fund spreads still remain skinny. Below are some recent datapoints from our platform.

Q2 2026 Gumption CRE Lending Report

In case you missed it: we released our proprietary CRE Lending Report for Q2 2026. Read it for free here.

Some highlights from the report:

Recent terms and closes

Alabama SFR portfolio refinance

We arranged financing for a portfolio of single-family homes in Birmingham, Alabama. See the full deal overview here.

MetricTerms
Loan amount$7,004,000
LTV75%
Rate6.49% fixed
Loan term5 years
Amortization25 years
I/O period36 months

North Carolina industrial refinance

We recently closed the cash-out refinance of an industrial property in North Carolina. For full details, read our case study linked here.

MetricTerms
Loan amount$2,000,000
LTV75%
Rate6.25% fixed
Loan term5 years
Amortization25 years

Our platform constantly compiles in-depth, region-specific capital markets data. We always want to help our borrowers and lenders close more deals. Please reach out if you are interested in term comps for any deals you're looking at.

Welcoming Nick Tomkins

Nick Tomkins, who joins Gumption to build out the platform in the Northeast

We're excited to welcome Nick Tomkins to our team. Nick brings extensive experience in commercial real estate acquisitions and investment to help build out our platform in the Northeast. He's also an accomplished athlete, having played football as a defensive lineman at Dartmouth and professionally in France. Connect with him on LinkedIn here.

See you at ICSC Florida

Gumption is exhibiting at ICSC Florida, August 30 to September 1, 2026, at the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando, FL

Ward, Robert, and Jordan from our team are looking forward to ICSC Florida in Orlando this month. If you're also planning on being there, we'd love to connect and see if we can help you get the best financing terms on the projects in your pipeline.

That's all for now. Looking forward to closing more deals with you this quarter.


This is the web edition of Gumption's August 2026 Capital Markets Update, sent to subscribers on August 14, 2026. Subscribe to the newsletter to get it in your inbox each month.